NEWS

It's official: Hurricane Center shifts Irma more west for Florida landfall

Staff and wire reports

Well, it's official. The latest forecast for Hurricane Irma has the record-breaking Category 5 storm shifting more to the west upon arrival in Florida.

In the 4 p.m. advisory by the National Hurricane Center, an adjustment was made for Irma, pushing the current track toward the middle of the Florida peninsula at landfall. From there the path remains more through the heart of the state than previous tracks along the state's eastern coastline.

NHC reported that the forecast track for Irma the next two days was adjusted a little bit to the south given that a ridge of weather to the north continues to be strong. Also, the ECMWF and HFIP hurricane models have shifted the storm's current path southward a little bit.

The Hurricane Center noted that these two models have been performing very well during Irma. This adjustment also results in a westward shift of the track near Florida and northward.

For the next two to three days, Irma will move west-northwest on the south side of a ridge of high pressure called the Bermuda high, centered in the central Atlantic.

By this weekend, Irma will begin to turn north in the direction of a departing southward dip in the jet stream that has set up in the eastern United States. The location of that northward turn will dictate where the most severe impacts from Irma occur in Florida and the southeastern United States.

While it is still too soon to narrow down specifics on the exact path of Irma's center and eyewall, it is becoming likely that a major hurricane strike on at least part of South Florida, including the Florida Keys, will happen this weekend.

Currently, the eye of Irma should continue to move between Hispaniola and the Turks and Caicos Islands overnight Thursday. The core of the hurricane will then move between the north coast of Cuba and the Bahamas during the next day or two.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 175 mph with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or two, but Irma is forecast to remain a powerful Category 4 or 5 hurricane during the next couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 922 millibars or 27.23 inches.

Previous Story: Will Irma come west? It's starting to lean on Euro model

The fate of Florida depends on when and how Hurricane Irma makes a right turn.

National Weather Service Director Louis Uccellini says forecasters have no doubt it will turn in the days ahead. If it's an early, sharp turn, Irma is more likely to keep closer to the peninsula's eastern shore or even over water as it churns north.

But if it turns later and more widely, the center of Irma and its maximum destructive capacity would move inland.

Hurricane Irma’s path showed little change Thursday morning after shifting toward the east coast of Florida on Wednesday, according to federal forecasters.

Reports from the National Hurricane Center now show Irma hitting the southeastern tip of Florida early Sunday before traveling up the east coast of the state through Monday morning.

But disparities in the most recent computer models have meteorologists urging residents to be prepared for landfall on the west coast. The latest European model, one of the more popular models meteorologists rely on, has the storm’s path making landfall around Naples at 2.30 a.m. Sunday and traveling through the middle of the state.

“We have to wait until Saturday for the actual turn to occur, but we won’t actually know until that turn actually does happen, so we’re relying on model guidance right now to make predictions on that turn,” said Justin Mosely, SNN-TV chief meteorologist in Sarasota. “We’re trying to get the message out that the west coast has to prepare for a storm just like the east coast, because we don’t know where that turn is going to happen.”

Currently, the storm is traveling along the northern coast of Haiti and the Dominican Republic, but has not yet made its northwestern turn that will determine its path through Florida. Meteorologists will have a more certain idea of where it will go by 8 a.m. Saturday morning, Mosely said, but noted that does not give residents much time to prepare should things change.

The National Hurricane Center will likely incorporate this change in the European model into its 5 p.m. update, which may shift the path farther to the west.

Jeff Masters, the meteorology director of Weather Underground, says the main factor determining the turn will most likely be a low pressure system expected to develop over the Great Lakes as part of a dip in the jet stream, with some extra help from winds flowing out of the newly formed Hurricane Katia.

This story is from Elizabeth Djinis a staff writer for the Sarasota Herald-Tribune

12:30 p.m. Update

A ferocious Hurricane Irma left at least 10 dead and thousands homeless on islands across the northern Caribbean as it cut a devastating path that could lead to a catastrophic strike on Florida.

Irma weakened only slightly Thursday morning from its peak, record-setting winds of 185 mph and remained a powerful Category 5 storm with winds of 175 mph in the 11 a.m. report from the National Hurricane Center.

Reports from the Hurricane Center now show Irma hitting offshore along the southeastern tip of Florida early Sunday before traveling up the eastern coast of the state and making landfall around the central east coast at about 2 a.m. Monday.

While the eye of the storm is predicted to be far from the Gulf Coast, forecasters still caution that winds and rain will be felt across the state from the hurricane, which could make landfall as a Category 5 storm.

The National Hurricane Center has issued a hurricane watch for the Florida Keys, as well as mainland Florida for all areas south of Bonita Beach on the west coast and Jupiter Inlet on the east coast.

Irma appears increasingly likely to rip into heavily populated South Florida early Sunday. Gov. Rick Scott has declared an emergency and mandatory evacuation orders are in place for parts of the Miami metro area and the Florida Keys. Parts of South Florida were placed under a hurricane watch Thursday.

Forecasters said Irma could rake the entire Atlantic coast of Florida and rage on into Georgia and South Carolina. Georgia's governor has ordered a mandatory evacuation starting Saturday from the state's Atlantic coast ahead of Hurricane Irma. That includes the city of Savannah.

WHAT HAS IRMA DONE SO FAR?

The storm lashed Puerto Rico with heavy rain and powerful winds late Wednesday, leaving nearly 900,000 people without power. Meanwhile, authorities struggled to get aid to small Caribbean islands already devastated by the historic storm.

Nearly every building on the island of Barbuda was damaged when the eye of the storm passed early Wednesday. That left about 60 percent of the island's roughly 1,400 people homeless, Antigua and Barbuda Prime Minister Gaston Browne told The Associated Press.

ONE FLIGHT INTO THE STORM

A daring Delta Air Lines crew braved Hurricane Irma's wind and rain to fly in and out of Puerto Rico to pick up travelers.

The flight-tracking website FlightRadar24 shared a radar image showing the plane heading into San Juan from New York just before noon Wednesday as the swirling storm was set to engulf the island. The plane took off less than an hour later with a new group of passengers for the return trip to New York. Radar images showed it navigating a narrow path between Irma's outer bands to escape the storm.

OTHER FLIGHTS BEING CANCELED

Airlines plan to cancel Florida flights that are in Hurricane Irma's path.

American Airlines says it will begin shutting down operations in Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Fort Myers, Sarasota and West Palm Beach by Friday afternoon and cancel flights through the weekend. JetBlue Airways said Wednesday afternoon that it had canceled about 130 flights.

INSURANCE IMPACT

One of Florida's biggest home insurers could take a big hit if predictions about Hurricane Irma prove true.

The state-run Citizens Property Insurance Corp. is strong enough to absorb the blow from the monster storm, industry experts say, but all the new claims could punch a hole in its finances, possibly leading to higher premiums in future years.

FLOOD INSURANCE HAS DROPPED

An Associated Press analysis shows a steep drop in flood insurance across Florida, including the areas most endangered by what could be a devastating storm surge as Hurricane Irma approaches.

In just five years, the state's total number of federal flood insurance policies has fallen by 15 percent, according to Federal Emergency Management Agency data. Florida's property owners still buy far more federal flood insurance than any other state, but most residents in hazard zones are badly exposed.

11:50 a.m. Update

There have been very few cyclones stronger than Hurricane Irma. And there have been some that lasted longer. But no other storm in recorded history has maintained top winds of 185 p.m. for 37 hours.

Colorado State University hurricane expert Phil Klotzbach says that breaks the previous record, held by Typhoon Haiyan, which had similar top winds for 24 hours before it hit the Philippines and killed 6,000 people in 2013.

Irma also has been the most intense Atlantic hurricane on record outside the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, measured by its barometric pressure of 914 millibars.

10:15 a.m. Update

The beginning of the alerts for Florida was made Thursday morning as the National Hurricane Center has issued Hurricane and Storm Surge watch alerts in its 10 a.m. report.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the Florida peninsula to Bonita Beach, including the Florida Keys, Lake Okeechobee and Florida Bay. Also in that Hurricane Watch is Cuba from Matanzas province eastward to Guantanamo province.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the Florida peninsula from Jupiter Inlet southward and around the peninsula to Bonita Beach, including the Florida Keys.

Other warnings and watches in effect are:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect:

—Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the northern border with Haiti

—Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Le Mole St. Nicholas

—Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands

—Central Bahamas

—Northwestern Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect:

—Jupiter Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Bonita Beach

—Florida Keys

—Lake Okeechobee

—Florida Bay

—Cuba from Matanzas province eastward to Guantanamo province

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect:

—Dominican Republic from south of Cabo Engano westward to the southern border with Haiti

—Haiti from south of Le Mole St. Nicholas to Port-Au-Prince

—Cuba provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus and Villa Clara.

Southeastern and central Bahamas: 15 to 20 feet

Northwestern Bahamas: 5 to 10 feet

Northern coast of the Dominican Republic: 3 to 5 feet

Northern coast of Haiti and the Gulf of Gonave: 1 to 3 feet

Northern coast of Cuba in the warning area: 5 to 10 feet

Irma's wind speed has dropped to 175 mph with the storm moving west-northwest at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure remained steady at 921 millibars or 27.20 inches.

The monster hurricane is currently 75 miles east-northeast of Puerto Plata, Dominican Republic and 120 miles southeast of Grand Turk Island.

Irma is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Saturday evening:

Northeast Puerto Rico and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands: additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches

Much of the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos: 8 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches

Andros Island and Bimini, Bahamas: 12 to 16 inches, isolated 25 inches

Northern Dominican Republic and northern Haiti: 4 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches

Southern Dominican Republic and southern Haiti: 2 to 5 inches

Eastern and central Cuba: 4 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches

Southeast Florida and the upper Florida Keys: 8 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches

Lower Florida Keys: 2 to 5 inches

Original Story

Fearsome Hurricane Irma left at least 10 dead and thousands homeless amid a swathe of smashed buildings and uprooted trees, cutting a path of devastation across the northern Caribbean early Thursday morning on a track that could lead to a catastrophic strike on Florida.

The most potent Atlantic Ocean hurricane ever, Irma weakened only slightly Thursday morning and remained a powerful Category 5 storm with winds of 180 mph, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center.

In a 5 a.m. report from the NHC, Irma was positioned 95 miles north of Punta Cana, Dominican Republic, and 210 miles east-southeast of Grand Turk Island. Its central pressure has risen to 921 millibars or 27.20 inches.

The monster storm currently is recording hurricane-force winds outward up to 50 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds outward up to 185 miles.

Thursday begins with the following warnings and watches:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect:

—Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the northern border with Haiti

—Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Le Mole St. Nicholas

—Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands

—Central Bahamas

—Northwestern Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect:

—Cuba from Matanzas province eastward to Guantanamo province

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect:

—Dominican Republic from south of Cabo Engano westward to the southern border with Haiti

—Haiti from south of Le Mole St. Nicholas to Port-Au-Prince

—Cuba provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas

Irma is currently moving west-northwest at near 17 mph, according to the Hurricane Center. On the forecast track, the center should pass north of the coast of Hispaniola later today, be near the Turks and Caicos and southeastern Bahamas by this evening, and then be near the Central Bahamas by Friday.

The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the following amounts within the hurricane warning area near and to the north of the center of Irma:

Turks and Caicos Islands: 15 to 20 feet

Southeastern and central Bahamas: 15 to 20 feet

Northern coast of the Dominican Republic: 3 to 5 feet

Northern coast of Haiti and the Gulf of Gonave: 1 to 3 feet

Northern coast of Cuba in the warning area: 5 to 10 feet

Irma also is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Saturday:

Northeast Puerto Rico and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands: An additional 2 to 4 inches.

Southeast Bahamas, Central Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos: 8 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches.

Northern Dominican Republic and northern Haiti: 4 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.

Eastern and Central Cuba: 4 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.

Southern Haiti: 1 to 4 inches.

The storm was increasingly likely to rip into heavily populated South Florida early Sunday, prompting the governor to declare an emergency and officials to impose mandatory evacuation orders for parts of the Miami metro area and the Florida Keys. Forecasters said it could punish the entire Atlantic coast of Florida and rage on into Georgia and South Carolina.

"This could easily be the most costly storm in U.S. history, which is saying a lot considering what just happened two weeks ago," said Brian McNoldy, a hurricane researcher at the University of Miami, alluding to the damage caused by Hurricane Harvey.

French Interior Minister Gerard Collomb told France Info radio that eight had died and 23 injured in the country's Caribbean island territories, and he said the toll on Saint-Martin and Saint-Barthelemy could be higher because rescue teams have yet to finish their inspection of the islands.

"The reconnaissance will really start at daybreak," Collomb said.

At a news conference, Collomb also said 100,000 food rations have been sent to the islands, the equivalent of four days of supplies.

"It's a tragedy, we'll need to rebuild both islands," he said. "Most of the schools have been destroyed."

Irma blacked out much of Puerto Rico, raking the U.S. territory with heavy wind and rain while staying just out to sea, and it headed early Thursday toward the Dominican Republic and Haiti.

To the east, authorities struggled to get aid to small Caribbean islands devastated by the storm's near-record 185 mph winds. Communications were difficult with areas hit by Irma, and information on damage trickled out.

Nearly every building on Barbuda was damaged when the hurricane's core crossed almost directly over the island early Wednesday and about 60 percent of its roughly 1,400 residents were left homeless, Antigua and Barbuda Prime Minister Gaston Browne told The Associated Press.

"It is just really a horrendous situation," Browne said after returning to Antigua from a plane trip to the neighboring island.

He said roads and telecommunications systems were wrecked and recovery would take months, if not years. A 2-year-old child was killed as a family tried to escape a damaged home during the storm, Browne told the AP.

One death also was reported in the nearby island of Anguilla, where officials reported extensive damage to the airport, hospitals, shelters and school and said 90 percent of roads are impassible, according to the Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency.

The agency also reported "major damage" to houses and commercial buildings in the British Virgin Islands.

Significant damage was also reported on St. Martin, an island split between French and Dutch control. Photos and video circulating on social media showed major damage to the airport in Philipsburg and the coastal village of Marigot heavily flooded. France sent emergency food and water there and to the French island of St. Bart's, where Irma ripped off roofs and knocked out electricity.

Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said Thursday the storm "caused widescale destruction of infrastructure, houses and businesses."

"There is no power, no gasoline, no running water. Houses are under water, cars are floating through the streets, inhabitants are sitting in the dark, in ruined houses and are cut off from the outside world," he said.

By early Thursday, the center of the storm was about 95 miles north of Punta Cana, Dominican Republic, and was moving west-northwest near 17 mph.

More than half the island of Puerto Rico was without power, leaving 900,000 in the dark and nearly 50,000 without water, the U.S. territory's emergency management agency said in the midst of the storm. Fourteen hospitals were using generators after losing power, and trees and light poles were strewn across roads.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center predicted Irma would remain at Category 4 or 5 for the next day or two as passes just to the north of the Dominican Republic and Haiti on Thursday, nears the Turks & Caicos and parts of the Bahamas by Thursday night and skirts Cuba on Friday night into Saturday.

It will then likely head north toward Florida, though the exact path remains at question, though current forecasts have the state's east coast in the crosshairs of Irma.